The “ALT SPEED”
The “Alt Speed” is a speed figure that is comprised of a horse’s average speed rating, their most recent efforts, the horse’s distance ability and the class that it has been competing against in its last three races. Each of the components are used on a percentage basis and has been optimized by “Tracking” more than a dozen different precise combinations to get what we have now.
The top “Alt Speed” is currently winning at a 27% clip and has an average payout of $7.64 for a $2 ticket. This is producing an ROI of 1.72%. However, using the “Trackers” we can change all the variables to find the best way to bet any horse. With the Alt Speed, we can make the very simple change of waiting for a Morning Line of 3-1 or higher on the top Alt Speed horse and we jump to a 13% ROI with an average payout of $11.48 per win.
If we play around with it a bit more, we find that we are in fact losing money in the sprint races but we more than make up for it in the route races. If we remove the 3-1 odds requirement and take every horse no matter the odds and move the distance to a minimum of seven furlongs and no maximum distance, we end up with an ROI of over 18%; 28% for the turf races and 16% for the dirt races.
Claiming and Maiden Special Weight races are producing most of the ROI with Allowance and Stakes races helping them out. Starter Allowance, optional claiming and Maiden Claiming races are the worst performers with a negative 29% ROI.
The sweet spots coming out of all this look something like this:
· Allowance, Claiming, Maiden SW and stakes races only
· 4-1 minimum Morning Line, no max.
· Turf Races only
· Seven furlongs minimum, no max
With this setup we have an ROI of 107%
Of course, we can add dirt races to the above parameters which adds about 50% to our profit but drops the ROI to 94%, that’s a trade-off I can live with because it drastically reduces our volatility while boosting profits by a massive amount. However, we can do even better ROI wise, by waiting for 8-1 ML, but the profit comes in all sizes and we don’t want to miss easy winners or end up in a long drought of losers. It’s best to stay fluid, demand a decent price and remember that there are no “locks” at the track in any random race.
Betting the top “Alt Speed” horse in any CLM, MSW, ALW or STK route at ANY odds is a long-term profitable play with the results we have seen so far. This Tracker also includes the best AR, Rec Fig, and Total Pace; all of which are individually profitable with the above parameters. I will dig more into those in a future post, as well as get into profitable sprint races wherever we can find them. For now, keep a close eye on the “Alt Speed” horses, they make excellent “key” horses in exotic wagers.
This Tracker has just aver 1000 horses, so it’s a relatively small sample, but I will continue to grow this Tracker and keep everybody periodically updated on the results and trends of the Tracker.
Remember, if you have an angle you want to test out, there is no better way than creating a Tracker, adding those angle horses to your Tracker and playing around with the odds, distances, race types and more to find the best winning bets for you!
Happy Tracking, Happy Winning!