The “REC FIG” is a powerful number on the TYP (Track Your Plays) reports. The figure is a representation of each horses last effort considering their speed, and the class of the race compared to today’s race class. But, like every handicapping angle/number it can be skewed by the track variant, distance and surface as well as more human things like a poor start or a rough trip and the obvious that it’s a complete different field makeup. (Or at least a mostly different makeup)
One good thing about the “REC FIG” is that the top figures tend to be favored by the public, usually making for a poor betting choice, but, by the same consideration, solid figures that aren’t the best in the race, but are good enough to win, can be ignored by the public, creating some very good betting opportunities. Below is snapshot of my REC FIG “Tracker”. Remember that these snapshots are using two horses per race when meeting the restrictions for each example.
Top two Rec Fig, no restrictions
Win %: 17.5
3rd and 4th Rec Fig, no restrictions
We can already see a big difference between the top two and the 3rd and 4th Rec Figs. Lets play around with the odds a little and see where things hash out.
Top two Rec Fig, 5-1 min, no max
3rd and 4th Rec Fig, 5-1 min, no max
Win %: 9.6%
With these two examples, its easy to see the value that the 3rd and 4th best Rec Figs offer over the top two figures; we have a higher win percentage and a profit of $38.00.
While the “REC FIG” numbers aren’t gospel, they are a productive betting option with a sweet spot at 7-1 and profits start showing at a mere 3-1.
So, it’s always a good idea to consider the Recent Figures when playing both vertical and horizontal bets, especially when you can find value anywhere in the top four Rec Figs.